Thursday, April 8, 2010

The Recession Will Not Define This Decade

Lawrence Summers, Director of the National Economic Council, provided the luncheon keynote for EIA's 2010 conference. To my left at the lunch table (delicious, by the way), a planning director for a Minnesota energy cooperative; to my right, a U.S. Navy commander charged with improving energy efficiency in nuclear submarines. Over a delectable chocolate cake, Summers delivered his address. Here are some highlights:

The current economic recession, Summers says, will not be remembered as a decade-defining moment (like the Great Depression defined the 1930s). Instead, it will be remembered as a disturbing economic fluctuation. This is with thanks to the leadership and initiatives promulgated by the Obama administration, by the way. With 162,000 job-growth this past month, the economy is on the right track.

Dependence on foreign oil “represents a serious national security concern,” Summers says (echoing similar statements made by Energy Secretary Steven Chu earlier that morning). Debates on a national energy policy need to move from an either/or paradigm into a both/and mode of thinking. In other words, we can no longer discuss exploration or renewables, or environmental preservation or economic growth—we need to discuss exploration AND renewable, environmental preservation AND economic growth. An eclectic approach is needed.

This approach (which rather mirrors Chu’s call for a new industrial revolution) for economic security will come in the form of comprehensive energy legislation, which will accomplish five things:

1. Raise demand for and create new jobs (especially through capital intensive projects)
2. Reduce uncertainty and increase confidence
3. Reduce reliance on regulation and increase reliance on market forces
4. Support leadership and innovation
5. Strengthen the country’s international competitive position

Taken together, the five elements will mitigate systemic risks [pick you system, I suppose].

Summers then continued to hammer home some points made by Chu a couple hours earlier. The United States led the 20th century with innovations and transitive technologies, such as with nuclear technology, silicon chips, and the internet (Chu also had on his list satellite and GPS technology).

This was the gist of Summers’ speech, here are a couple of responses to questions from the audience:

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The military has been at the nexus of technological innovation and development. Think of the internet and jets—neither would have been possible without the support of a government entity willing to shell out immense amounts of investment dollars and resources to give the technologies necessary boosts. Much like the transcontinental railroad [yup, he brought history into the discussion, and even did an impression of J.P. Morgan…], market forces alone would not have supported these kinds of projects because they were not economically viable or profitable in the near-term. It takes government heft to get beyond this hesitancy toward the unknown.

To abdicate the responsibility of project development where prospects and benefits are unknown is, Summers says, blinkered and shortsighted. Indeed, harkening to Chu’s theme earlier, it is a matter of economic and national security to support such projects and innovations.


Posted by Shaun Randol

1 comments:

Anonymous said...

We’re still waking up from the huge blow to the head, i.e. we’re (very slowly) correcting / deleveraging after longer period of over-expansion fueled by extensive leverage and permitted by deregulation revolution advocated by U.S. FED and Ministry of finance.

And this man (one of those responsible for the starting and amplification of recent crisis) was not prosecuted; he wasn't even fired, and still has guts to preach around what we should do.

This can only happen in the world of finance, if it were in football nobody would watch it, because it would look ridiculous.

Balkan boy